Mozambique in November 2025: Major Developments Amid Security and Economic Challenges

November 2025 was a pivotal month for Mozambique, marked by significant developments in security operations, natural gas projects, and the humanitarian crisis facing the nation. Here’s a roundup of the key stories that defined the month.

Escalating Conflict in Northern Nampula Province

The most pressing concern in November was a surge in insurgent attacks in northern Nampula province. Islamic State Mozambique (ISM) militants launched a coordinated assault on civilian communities, resulting in mass displacement that had become strikingly unusual.

Beginning on November 10, ISM fighters dressed in military uniforms carried out a series of devastating attacks across Eráti and Memba districts. Within just 11 days, insurgents conducted at least 13 separate attacks on civilian communities, killing approximately 21 civilians. By November 21, the humanitarian crisis had deepened dramatically: over 66,000 people fled Memba for shelter in neighboring districts, with the numbers continuing to climb as assessments were still underway.

What made these November attacks particularly destabilizing was the pattern of repeated displacement. Unlike earlier insurgent tactics characterized by hit-and-run raids, many families were forced to flee multiple times within weeks. This compounded the vulnerability of populations already battered by cyclones earlier in 2025. Nearly 90 percent of those displaced had already fled at least once during the year, with children comprising 67 percent of the displaced population.

Counter-Insurgency Operations Intensify

In response to the escalating threat, Mozambican and Rwandan forces intensified counter-insurgency operations in Macomia district in Cabo Delgado province. These operations placed significant pressure on ISM militants who had previously operated along the coast and in strategic forest positions.

The pressure from military operations forced ISM fighters to disperse westward, some relocating to Muidumbe and northern Montepuez, where they encountered renewed clashes with state forces. The Islamic State’s official weekly newsletter reported that on November 10, ISM fought off attempts by Mozambique’s Defense Armed Forces (FADM) to recover an outpost at Quiterajo, while Rwandan soldiers reportedly sustained injuries in subsequent clashes.

Energy Projects Move Forward Despite Controversy

November brought positive momentum for Mozambique’s liquefied natural gas sector, though not without controversy. ExxonMobil lifted force majeure on its $30 billion Rovuma LNG project in Cabo Delgado, a significant decision paving the way for a final investment decision expected in 2026. The move followed TotalEnergies’ recent restart of work on the adjacent Mozambique LNG project, with both companies expecting first production in the early 2030s.

However, the energy sector’s optimism was tempered by serious allegations. On November 17, the European Center for Constitutional and Human Rights (ECCHR) filed a criminal complaint in France accusing TotalEnergies of complicity in war crimes, torture, and enforced disappearances in Mozambique. The complaint centered on a 2021 incident known as the “container massacre,” in which Mozambican armed forces allegedly detained, tortured, and killed civilians at TotalEnergies’ gas site. According to ECCHR, internal documents showed the company was aware of violent abuses by the security forces it relied on, having provided housing, food, equipment, and bonuses to soldiers with documented histories of human rights violations.

Meanwhile, the government granted TotalEnergies a 4½-year extension to its Cabo Delgado LNG concession, corresponding to the period when the project was suspended due to insurgent attacks between April 2021 and October 2025. The company had requested a 10-year extension, citing losses of $4.5 billion.

Economic Assessment and Macroeconomic Challenges

An International Monetary Fund team visited Mozambique from November 12-21 to conduct the 2025 Article IV Consultation. The IMF’s assessment painted a complex picture of a nation navigating significant economic headwinds.

While inflation remained contained and economic activity was gradually recovering from social unrest that followed the disputed October 2024 elections, growth remained subdued. The IMF emphasized that Mozambique faced significant uncertainty and called for a coordinated policy package including urgent fiscal consolidation, greater exchange rate flexibility, and structural reforms to improve governance and foster private sector-led growth.

The Broader Context

November illustrated the interconnected challenges facing Mozambique. The humanitarian crisis unfolding in Nampula province underscored the ongoing security threat, while natural gas projects represented potential economic benefits for a country facing macroeconomic pressures. Yet these projects themselves became sources of controversy over environmental and human rights concerns.

As the month closed, Mozambique remained at a crossroads—with opportunities for economic development tempered by security concerns, humanitarian needs, and questions about accountability for alleged past abuses by those charged with the nation’s security and development.